Parliament is still several weeks away from resuming, but those focused on the longstanding battle over copyright reform are already looking ahead to how things may unfold (I appeared this week on BNN to discuss). This post offers what I see as the three most likely scenarios on the now-certain passage of a copyright reform bill sometime over the next year or so. Note that this is not necessarily what I want to see happen, but rather what I think is likely to occur.

Scenario One – Bill C-32 Is Reintroduced Unchanged

The reintroduction of Bill C-32 is by far the most likely scenario. The reason is simple – it’s what the Conservatives have said they plan to do. The Conservative election platform stated:

A Stephen Harper-led majority Government will also reintroduce and pass the Copyright Modernization Act, a key pillar in our commitment to make Canada a leader in the global digital economy. This balanced, commonsense legislation recognizes the practical priorities of teachers, students, artists, families, and technology companies, among others, while aligning Canada with international standards. It respects both the rights of creators and the interests of consumers. It will ensure that Canada’s copyright law will be responsive in a fast- changing digital world, while protecting and creating jobs, promoting innovation, and attracting investment to Canada.

Since Harper noted in his first post-election press conference that his plans are unlikely to surprise, there is every reason to take him at his word. In all likelihood, Bill C-32 will be back and it will be passed.

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