Donald Trump’s stunning win of the U.S. Presidency on Tuesday night has sparked numerous articles speculating about the implications for various policies and issues. Given how little Trump said about digital policy, predictions about telecom or IP policy are little more than educated guesses. Trade policy was a major Trump issue, however, as his opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership and vow to renegotiate NAFTA was repeated at virtually every campaign stop. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell confirmed yesterday that the TPP would not be brought up for a vote this year, leaving Trump to decide on its future. Officials in other TPP countries such as Australia, New Zealand, and Malaysia have now acknowledged that the TPP is likely dead.
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The Trouble With the TPP, Day 49: Why Canada Must Wait For the U.S. to Move on the TPP
The TPP has emerged as a major political issue in the United States with presidential candidates such as Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders all expressing opposition or concern with the deal. Moreover, House Speaker Paul Ryan has said there are not sufficient votes to support passing the agreement. The U.S. opposition makes it a near-certainty that it will not pass the TPP in 2016 and that the debate will certainly extend into 2017 and the election of a new president. Meanwhile, Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s Minister of International Trade, has said it is not her job to sell the TPP and made it very clear that the government will not commit to ratifying the TPP until it has conducted a full public consultation.
In response to these developments, business lobby groups such as the Canadian Chamber of Commerce have called on the government to move quickly to ratify the deal without regard for what happens in the U.S. Yet the TPP’s implementation provisions are structured to provide little incentive for countries to move quickly without assurances that the U.S. plans to ratify. Article 30.5 establishes the rules for the TPP entering into force:
