Cooperation in the Pacific Rim by Jakob Polacsek, World Economic Forum (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0) https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/48179628441

Digital Trade

Donald J. Trump at Marriott Marquis NYC September 7th 2016 by Michael Vadon (CC BY 2.0) https://flic.kr/p/Mj9V9J

Back to the Drawing Board as Trump Kills the TPP

President-Elect Donald Trump has ended any further speculation about the future of the Trans Pacific Partnership by announcing that he plans to formally withdraw from the agreement on his first day in office. I’ve written extensively about why ratification for Canada would be a mistake and argued last week in the Globe that Canada should use the death of the TPP as an opportunity to re-examine its approach to trade agreement negotiations including working toward greater transparency, focusing on tariff reduction rather than regulations, and dropping controversial ISDS provisions.

The need for Canada to wait on the U.S. has been readily apparent for months. As currently structured, the TPP cannot take effect without the U.S. since entering into force requires ratification by at least six signatories who represent at least 85 percent of the GDP of the countries in the original deal. That provision effectively gives both the U.S. and Japan veto power. With the U.S. pulling out, the agreement will not enter into force no matter what Canada (or anyone else) does.

The central role of the U.S. in the TPP is no accident. For most TPP countries, access to the U.S. market was the primary reason for entering into the agreement and as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said over the weekend, “the TPP would be meaningless without the United States.” Indeed, the reason Canada, Japan, and Mexico all joined the TPP talks late was that without a clear commitment from the U.S., the agreement was of limited value.

November 22, 2016 — 3 comments — News

16th EU-Canada Summit, 30 October 2016 by European External Action Service (CC BY-NC 2.0) https://flic.kr/p/NBFYet

CETA Bill Hits 2nd Reading as Officials Admit They Haven’t Studied Financial Impact of Patent Reforms

The costs associated with the increased patent protections for pharmaceutical drugs in the trade agreement between Canada and the European Union has long been one of the most controversial elements of the deal. At least one study has pegged the cost to provincial health care at more than a billion dollars. In response to those concerns, the Conservative government promised to compensate the provinces for the increased costs. Earlier this year, when officials from Health Canada appeared before a House of Commons committee, they acknowledged that it is hard to estimate the actual cost but that they knew that the agreement would increase the costs of drugs in Canada.

Last week, Steve Verheul, the lead Canadian CETA negotiator, appeared before another House of Commons committee and was asked if the department has done any analysis on the financial impact of the extended patent protection. Remarkably, Verheul said that it has not, arguing that it is difficult to come up with a projection. In fact, when pressed on the issue, Verheul speculated that perhaps costs would not increase since Canadians already pays higher prices for pharmaceutical drugs than consumers in European countries such as the UK, France or Germany.

These comments from Canada’s lead CETA negotiations are simply bewildering.

November 21, 2016 — 5 comments — News

TPP Signing, February 4th, 2016 by US Embassy (CC BY-ND 2.0) https://flic.kr/p/DEVEhT

Death Knell for the TPP: A Chance for Real Change to Trade Policy

Donald Trump’s surprise U.S. presidential election victory promises to result in an overhaul of U.S. trade policy, including the immediate end of support for the Trans Pacific Partnership, the controversial trade pact involving 12 Pacific countries including Canada, the U.S., and Japan. While President Barack Obama held out hope that the TPP could be salvaged during the “lame duck session” of Congress that occurs immediately after the election, his administration was quickly forced to concede that the deal has become politically toxic and stands no chance of passage. Since U.S. ratification is required for it to take effect, it’s effectively dead.

My Globe and Mail column notes that the Canadian government’s view of the TPP was always difficult to discern. It was negotiated by the previous Conservative government, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland have been non-committal, focusing instead on TPP public consultations that are still scheduled to run until early 2017.

Their ambivalence was not a function of trade skepticism – the Liberals emerged as enthusiastic backers of the trade deal between Canada and the European Union – but rather stems from the recognition that Canadian interests in the TPP were largely defensive in nature. With agreements already in place with many TPP countries, the agreement offered at best limited benefits for Canada’s economy.

November 17, 2016 — 2 comments — Columns

Donald Trump by Matt Johnson (CC BY-NC 2.0) https://flic.kr/p/CDVn7Z

Trump Victory May Kill the TPP, But Reopening NAFTA Could Bring Back the Same IP Demands

Donald Trump’s stunning win of the U.S. Presidency on Tuesday night has sparked numerous articles speculating about the implications for various policies and issues. Given how little Trump said about digital policy, predictions about telecom or IP policy are little more than educated guesses. Trade policy was a major Trump issue, however, as his opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership and vow to renegotiate NAFTA was repeated at virtually every campaign stop. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell confirmed yesterday that the TPP would not be brought up for a vote this year, leaving Trump to decide on its future. Officials in other TPP countries such as Australia, New Zealand, and Malaysia have now acknowledged that the TPP is likely dead.

November 10, 2016 — 6 comments — News

16th EU-Canada Summit, 30 October 2016 by European External Action Service (CC BY-NC 2.0) https://flic.kr/p/Nz8q9J

CETA Implementation Bill Provides Reminder of the IP Cost in the Canada – EU Trade Deal

The Canadian government moved quickly from signing the trade agreement between Canada and the European Union on Sunday to tabling Bill C-30, the CETA implementing legislation, on Monday. While most of the attention has focused on the political issues surrounding CETA in Europe and the potential gains for Canadian exporters due to tariff reductions, the implementing bill provides a reminder that there are significant costs associated with CETA that have generated far less discussion. In fact, the majority of the 140-page bill features changes to Canada’s intellectual property rules, requiring changes that largely serve European interests.

Mandated reforms to patent protections (in the form of term restoration provisions) and the expansion of protections for dozens of European geographical indications was always part of the price to be paid for CETA. There were concerns expressed throughout the negotiations on both issues. Geographic indications rules grant protections to foods widely produced around the world and establish new marketing and naming restrictions on Canadian food producers. Meanwhile, the patent term restoration provisions are likely to increase health care costs in Canada by delaying the availability of generic pharmaceuticals due to the extension in the term of protection for patented pharmaceuticals.

November 1, 2016 — 5 comments — News